GADIRU · MATCH ANALYSIS

Sunderland — Brighton

Premier League · Kick-off: Oct 10, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

Gadiru pre-match analysis for Premier League: Sunderland vs Brighton.

Team form

Sunderland

Sunderland: 5 matches · 1 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses · goals 6:10

Recent results
  • L3–5 · Manchester City
  • L0–2 · Arsenal
  • D1–1 · Brentford
  • W1–0 · Fulham
  • L1–2 · Ipswich

Brighton

Brighton: 5 matches · 3 wins · 1 draws · 1 losses · goals 16:5

Recent results
  • W3–0 · Arsenal
  • W5–0 · Coventry
  • D1–1 · Leeds
  • L3–4 · Chelsea
  • W4–0 · Aston Villa

Gadiru analysis

Sunderland form

Across their last 5 matches, Sunderland recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. They scored 6 and conceded 10. Their average xG per match is 1.95, compared with 1.73 for opponents. In other words, they created slightly more dangerous chances than their opponents on average. Leading players: Brobbey B. — 2.94 xG in 5 appearances; Le Fee E. — 2.05 xG in 5 appearances; Isidor W. — 1.49 xG in 5 appearances.

Brighton form

Across their last 5 matches, Brighton recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. They scored 16 and conceded 5. Their average xG per match is 2.30, compared with 1.74 for opponents. In other words, they created slightly more dangerous chances than their opponents on average. Leading players: Gross P. — 1.78 xG in 5 appearances; De Cuyper M. — 1.55 xG in 5 appearances; Yalcouye M. — 1.46 xG in 5 appearances.

Gadiru prediction

The xG model's most likely outcome is Brighton win (42.8%). In recent matches, Sunderland won 1 of 5, while Brighton won 3 of 5. Expected goals give Brighton a 0.17-goal edge (Sunderland 1.84, Brighton 2.01). That's an edge, not a sure thing: the other outcomes add up to 57.2%. Over 1.5 goals is estimated at 89.7%.

Expected goals from xG: Sunderland 1.84 — 2.01 Brighton

Model probability estimates

Over 1.5 goals: 89.7%Over 2.5 goals: 74.0%Both teams to score: 72.9%Away or draw: 63.8%Home or draw: 57.2%Under 3.5 goals: 46.2%Away win: 42.8%Home win: 36.2%Draw: 21.1%

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