GADIRU · MATCH ANALYSIS

Chelsea — Bournemouth

Premier League · Kick-off: Oct 10, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

Gadiru pre-match analysis for Premier League: Chelsea vs Bournemouth.

Team form

Chelsea

Chelsea: 5 matches · 2 wins · 1 draws · 2 losses · goals 10:12

Recent results
  • L0–3 · Brentford
  • D2–2 · Hull
  • L1–2 · Arsenal
  • W4–3 · Brighton
  • W3–2 · Fulham

Bournemouth

Bournemouth: 5 matches · 0 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses · goals 6:8

Recent results
  • L0–1 · Liverpool
  • D2–2 · Brentford
  • D2–2 · Newcastle
  • D1–1 · Everton
  • L1–2 · Manchester City

Gadiru analysis

Chelsea form

Across their last 5 matches, Chelsea recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. They scored 10 and conceded 12. Their average xG per match is 1.46, compared with 1.76 for opponents. Opponents tended to create the more dangerous chances over this run. Leading players: Joao Pedro — 2.16 xG in 4 appearances; Rogers M. — 1.71 xG in 5 appearances; Palmer C. — 1.32 xG in 5 appearances.

Bournemouth form

Across their last 5 matches, Bournemouth recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. They scored 6 and conceded 8. Their average xG per match is 1.34, compared with 1.41 for opponents. The quality of chances was fairly even. Leading players: Tavernier M. — 1.70 xG in 5 appearances; Barry T. — 1.48 xG in 1 appearances; Kluivert J. — 0.98 xG in 4 appearances.

Gadiru prediction

The xG model's most likely outcome is Bournemouth win (40.3%). In recent matches, Chelsea won 2 of 5, while Bournemouth won 0 of 5. Expected goals give Bournemouth a 0.11-goal edge (Chelsea 1.44, Bournemouth 1.55). That's an edge, not a sure thing: the other outcomes add up to 59.7%. Over 1.5 goals is estimated at 79.9%.

Expected goals from xG: Chelsea 1.44 — 1.55 Bournemouth

Model probability estimates

Over 1.5 goals: 79.9%Under 3.5 goals: 65.0%Away or draw: 64.6%Both teams to score: 60.1%Home or draw: 59.7%Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%Away win: 40.3%Home win: 35.4%Draw: 24.3%

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