GADIRU · MATCH ANALYSIS

Aston Villa — Brentford

Premier League · Kick-off: Oct 10, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

Gadiru pre-match analysis for Premier League: Aston Villa vs Brentford.

Team form

Aston Villa

Aston Villa: 5 matches · 1 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses · goals 4:9

Brentford

Brentford: 5 matches · 2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses · goals 10:4

Gadiru analysis

Aston Villa form

Across their last 5 matches, Aston Villa recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. They scored 4 and conceded 9. Their average xG per match is 0.91, compared with 1.78 for opponents. Opponents tended to create the more dangerous chances over this run. Leading players: De Cuyper M. — 1.47 xG in 1 appearances; Hinshelwood J. — 1.41 xG in 1 appearances; Buendia E. — 0.92 xG in 5 appearances.

Brentford form

Across their last 5 matches, Brentford recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. They scored 10 and conceded 4. Their average xG per match is 1.98, compared with 1.27 for opponents. In other words, they created slightly more dangerous chances than their opponents on average. Leading players: Thiago I. — 3.13 xG in 5 appearances; Schade K. — 1.52 xG in 5 appearances; Lewis-Potter K. — 1.20 xG in 5 appearances.

Gadiru prediction

The xG model's most likely outcome is Brentford win (55.8%). In recent matches, Aston Villa won 1 of 5, while Brentford won 2 of 5. Expected goals give Brentford a 0.79-goal edge (Aston Villa 1.09, Brentford 1.88). Over 1.5 goals is estimated at 79.6%.

Expected goals from xG: Aston Villa 1.09 — 1.88 Brentford

Model probability estimates

Over 1.5 goals: 79.6%Away or draw: 78.3%Under 3.5 goals: 65.4%Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%Both teams to score: 56.2%Away win: 55.8%Home or draw: 44.2%Draw: 22.4%Home win: 21.8%

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