GADIRU · MATCH ANALYSIS

Arsenal — Leeds

Premier League · Kick-off: Oct 10, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Gadiru pre-match analysis for Premier League: Arsenal vs Leeds.

Team form

Arsenal

Arsenal: 5 matches · 4 wins · 0 draws · 1 losses · goals 8:4

Recent results
  • L0–3 · Brighton
  • W2–0 · Sunderland
  • W2–1 · Chelsea
  • W1–0 · Aston Villa
  • W3–0 · Coventry

Leeds

Leeds: 5 matches · 2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses · goals 7:3

Recent results
  • D0–0 · Crystal Palace
  • W4–1 · Newcastle
  • D1–1 · Brighton
  • D1–1 · Brentford
  • W1–0 · Nottingham

Gadiru analysis

Arsenal form

Across their last 5 matches, Arsenal recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. They scored 8 and conceded 4. Their average xG per match is 1.70, compared with 0.81 for opponents. In other words, they created slightly more dangerous chances than their opponents on average. Leading players: Saka B. — 3.21 xG in 5 appearances; Havertz K. — 1.67 xG in 5 appearances; Odegaard M. — 1.07 xG in 5 appearances.

Leeds form

Across their last 5 matches, Leeds recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. They scored 7 and conceded 3. Their average xG per match is 1.55, compared with 1.30 for opponents. In other words, they created slightly more dangerous chances than their opponents on average. Leading players: Calvert-Lewin D. — 3.12 xG in 5 appearances; Bogle J. — 1.19 xG in 5 appearances; Stach A. — 0.97 xG in 5 appearances.

Gadiru prediction

The xG model's most likely outcome is Arsenal win (44.6%). In recent matches, Arsenal won 4 of 5, while Leeds won 2 of 5. Expected goals give Arsenal a 0.32-goal edge (Arsenal 1.50, Leeds 1.18). That's an edge, not a sure thing: the other outcomes add up to 55.4%. Over 1.5 goals is estimated at 74.6%.

Expected goals from xG: Arsenal 1.5 — 1.18 Leeds

Model probability estimates

Over 1.5 goals: 74.6%Under 3.5 goals: 72.0%Home or draw: 70.1%Away or draw: 55.4%Both teams to score: 53.7%Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%Home win: 44.6%Away win: 29.9%Draw: 25.6%

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